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Now What About Fiscal Sustainability?
The Director Of Brussels Think Tank, The Lisbon Council, Says Europe Should Apply Its Visionary Thinking To Policies Beyond The Environment
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Above all else, Europe today prides itself on its global leadership in environmental protection and sustainable development. We feel vindicated that we long ago foresaw the threat of global warming and environmental degradation.
And to this day we look down on countries that exploit their resources and engage in opportunistic, short-term, political and economic strategies without considering the long-term consequences. Now it's time we learned a lesson from what we preach to others.
Root of the Problem
Despite the recent economic recovery, the past years of stubbornly high unemployment, low growth, and ballooning budget deficits have taken a toll on Europe. The mood has been unusually dire on the old continent. Survey after survey shows that a majority of citizens believe the future will be worse than the present.
The reason for this insecurity isn't that European governments aren't spending enough on social programs -- social spending in many countries is at an all-time high -- or that they are asking people to make unreasonable sacrifices. Indeed, despite modest reform efforts in recent years, no other region in the world works less, vacations more, or retires earlier.
No, the root of the problem is that we are violating the very values we claim to hold so dear -- first and foremost sustainability, a concept first embraced by European citizens and governments some 30 years ago. Back then, during a time of unprecedented economic expansion and rising prosperity, many of us vowed to protect nature for future generations.
Violating the Pact
Today, we must be equally visionary and bold in applying the principle of sustainability to other policy areas that affect our quality of life. Topping the list: the state of public finances and the longevity of social security systems, particularly pensions and health.
In 2005, a staggering 12 of the European Union's 25 member states were in violation of the 3% public deficit ceiling required by the Stability and Growth Pact. Bear in mind that these same nations conceived and signed off on the pact as a means of ensuring the sustainability of public finances. Even if Europe didn't face its most serious demographic crisis in history, this would be a serious breakdown of fiscal discipline and solidarity between members of a political and economic union.
But in view of our rapidly aging and shrinking population, this serious lapse in our ability to manage public finances shows nothing less than utter disrespect for our young people and future generations. Nonetheless, political leaders who dare to tackle these fiscal imbalances face an uphill battle.
No Generation Pact
Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt last year proposed a "Generation Pact" to ensure the long-term sustainability of pensions among his aging citizenry. Far from embracing this important reform, trade unions twice brought the country to a standstill through general strikes because they deemed the prime minister's demand to raise the early retirement age from 58 to 60 as "unsocial."
Given that Belgium has the second lowest effective retirement age in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] and considering that the number of years that workers can expect to spend in retirement has risen dramatically in OECD countries -- from 11 years for men and 14 years for women on average in 1970, to 18 years for men and 23 years for women in 2004 -- absolutely nothing could be further from the truth.
Germany is not much better. Indeed, if spending there is not reined in, the current public debt, which stands at a staggering 1.4 trillion or about 18,000 per inhabitant, will rise exponentially in the years to come, amounting to more than 42,000 for every citizen by 2020. In a country that believes itself to be at the leading edge of sustainability, this is not only an act of hypocrisy but also a dangerous path toward generational friction.
A Matter of Destiny
Indeed, demographers forecast a pension time-bomb in Germany, with as many citizens over the age of 80 as under the age of 20 by the middle of this century. And experts are already warning today that the negative return on pension payments faced by today's contributors may be a violation of the constitution.
Perhaps this is why Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, said at the beginning of her tenure that gaining control of the runaway budget deficit is a matter of the country's "destiny."
Then there is France, a country not shy about chastising those it deems amiss in "sustainable development." A commission there studying the state of public finances recently delivered alarming news. In addition to the official debt figure of 1.1 trillion, the commission warns of an additional 800 billion to 1 trillion in off-balance-sheet state pension liabilities.
Status Quo Not An Option
In the past 10 years -- while France was riding the moral high ground and defending its modele social -- state spending in France has exceeded receipts by 18%, a dangerous and unsustainable trend that neither stopped a dramatic rise in unemployment nor managed to prevent the riots of disenfranchised youth in 2005. If spending is not reined in, it will lead to a public debt five times higher than gross domestic product by 2050.
To be clear, the status quo is not an option unless we are prepared to forfeit the prosperity we have come to take for granted and deprive future generations of the opportunities to which we feel entitled.
If Europe wants to be a responsible and respected global citizen again, as we were when we embraced and advanced the concept of environmental sustainability, we must urgently take action and kick off a second sustainability movement, one that will prepare our public finances and social security systems for the cataclysmic demographic challenges on the horizon.
How can we expect the world to listen to our calls for environmental sustainability while we squander the precious fiscal resources of our children and future generations? The time has come to abide by the values and principles we claim to possess.
Copyright 2006
, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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