The deck seems to be stacked against the tropical disturbance in the Atlantic that could be Bertha.
Meteorologists have been watching this system all week. The first hurricane hunter aircraft just returned from its investigative flight, and it still hasn't reached depression status.
Each day has presented a new problem, and it's been one of three things preventing any continued growth: cool waters, wind shear, or dry air.
Yesterday, the National Hurricane Center was only giving it a 30-50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression. Today, things are looking slightly more organized and the NHC has upped their probabilities to 70 percent.
As of this afternoon, the system is 550 miles away from the Windward Islands.
If the storm strengthens later today or tonight, it would be the second named storm of the season.
Climatologically speaking, this would be right on time.
The average day when we see the second named storm of the season happens to be August 1.
Puerto Rico may be the only United States territory that needs to be concerned. They may have a chance to see this storm, either as a depression or a tropical storm, close up. Everyone on the mainland, however, has little reason to panic.
Forecast models have the system approaching the southern coast of Florida before veering away and heading back into the Atlantic. This is still a week or more away, and a lot could change.
Follow Storm Shield Meteorologist Jason Meyers via the Storm Shield app on Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube. Download the Storm Shield Weather Radio App for your iPhone or Android device and get severe weather alerts wherever you are.
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