As we all know, the state has been suffering from an "exceptional drought" - the highest and worst level - for several years now.
Even last winter's El Niño season rain didn't put a dent in the state's drought.
"It's been going on for a long time and I think we're all really affected," said Bakersfield resident Logan Wiggins. "You can see the river is dried up, and the lawns are not as green as we want them to be. But I feel like everyone is doing their part in trying to conserve water, and definitely we're hoping to get out of it soon, but it will be a struggle. It's a pretty big drought."
In the last water year, which is calculated starting October 1, 2015 through September 30, 2016, Bakersfield received 5.47" of rain for the season, an inch less than our average of 6.47".
"I think at the end of last year we needed I think it was either four or five years of above normal precipitation to even get back to a baseline," said Meteorologist Christine Riley, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Hanford. "So I mean it would take at least five years of above normal precipitation. We can't even have normal precipitation to get back to a baseline, we need above normal precipitation for that many years in a row."
So even though the start to this water year last month seemed promising, with October bringing .24" of an inch, that's still less than October's monthly average of .30".
Looking ahead, we're still expecting to see drought conditions persist, or even worsen, this winter.
That's because the "climate prediction center" has issued a La Niña Watch. Unlike the El Niño pattern that brings the jet stream down toward southern California, instead we'll see a persistent ridge of high pressure over California, pushing the jet stream and all its rain well to the north.
So what does that mean for us here in California? On average, we get a drier and hotter winter.
"We're expecting the drought conditions to continue through the winter time," Riley said. "And who knows beyond that , it could likely continue for another few years. And because we're so far behind with our water, it's going to take many many years of above normal precipitation to see an improvement in the drought conditions."
But could the lack of rain actually lead to hotter temperatures this winter? Well keep in mind that our records only go back to 1889, a total of just 127 years, so we're still studying our weather patterns' affect on Kern County's climatology... But it does appear that the two are correlated.
"So for Bakersfield, 2014 was the hottest year on record, 2015 was the second hottest year on record," Riley said. "And I'm not quite sure how this year is stacking up, but i know that since 2010 when we really started the drought, the number of 100-degree days and 90-degree days per year has actually increased through this year. So that is something of interest."
Indeed... Look at the progression... The year of 2010-11 recorded 10.33" - this was the fifth wettest year on record. You may remember all the flooding in December of 2010 thanks to a Pineapple Express (a specific type of Atmospheric River event that brings tropical moisture from Hawaii) that brough four inches of rain in just four days right before Christmas.
And then the drought began.
Bakersfield's average is 6.47" of rain in a water year. Now in the water year of 2011-2012, we received less than five inches of rain. Then after that, a little more than three inches. The water year of 2013-2014 was our third driest year on record. So as we take a look ahead to the last two years, you can see, those also recorded less than average.
Now match that with our heat, and the number of days Bakersfield recorded an afternoon high over 100 degrees (the average is 33 per year). In 2011, it was 30, and that was after we had all of that rain. So then heading into the hotter and drier years, look at how these numbers go up:
The third driest year - after that we had 43 days over 100 degrees! Indeed, this year, 2016, there were 46!
So what can we do? There's only one answer - conserve.
"Well if it's warmer and drier then I'll get to play more golf. It won't rain on me!" said Bakersfield resident Bob Twist. "I'm kidding of course, we need the rain. We need snow in the mountains."
"It makes me concerned, because it should be cold right now, it should feel like Fall, not Spring," said Bakersfield resident Vincent Moreno. "And the climate affects everyone, we live in the climate, the ecosystem is dependent on the climate."
"Definitely sad, because of course I love the rain and it's nice to have the cold weather in the winter," Wiggins said. "But you know, that's part of living in Bakersfield and California!"
