REPORT: 16% chance of magnitude 7.5 or larger earthquake on southern San Andreas fault in 30 years

Posted at 2:28 PM, Mar 07, 2017
and last updated 2017-03-07 17:28:17-05

Officials forecast a 16 percent chance that a magnitude 7.5 or larger earthquake will occur on the southern San Andreas Fault in the next 30 years.

The survey found that earthquakes happen in the area of Frazier Mountain about every hundred years. The last major one happened 160 years ago, rupturing a section of the San Andres fault.

They found evidence of 10 ground-rupturing earthquakes between 800 A.D. and the last rupture in 1857.

“The record shows that large earthquakes occurred near Tejon Pass on average every 100 years. Most appear to be quite large, between magnitude 7.0 and magnitude 7.5,” Scharer said.

The study can be found online.