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Estimate says COVID-19 spread not as prevalent as spring wave… yet

Estimate says COVID-19 spread not as prevalent as spring wave… yet
Posted at 3:00 PM, Jul 02, 2020
and last updated 2020-07-03 06:23:27-04

Data scientist Youyang Gu, who is the creator of a website widely used to monitor the spread of the coronavirus, estimates that the spread of the virus is not quite as prevalent as it was in March and April, but added that the US is unquestionably in the midst of a second wave.

Gu's model is among several the CDC uses to come up with official government projections on the spread of the virus.

Based on a lack of testing early in the pandemic, Gu’s team estimates that there were around 250,000 new infections of the coronavirus each day in late March and early April. By July 1, that figure dropped in half.

But in recent weeks, the spread of the virus has gained steam. Based on Gu’s projections, he estimates there are nearly 200,000 new infections of the virus each day. Based on Gu’s projections, he expects the virus to peak out with 265,000 new infections per day in early August.

“We updated our infections estimate to closer match the observed data. We now estimate there to be around 180k new infections per day in the US, 4 to 5 times higher than the number of reported cases. Because we use only deaths in our model, we believe this estimate may still be an underestimate of the true prevalence,” Yu said.

On Wednesday, there were more than 50,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, but Yu’s projection has the number of likely infections nearly four times higher.

But Yu notes that there is a lag time between infections and when cases become fatal.

To view the projections, click here.

Coronavirus Testing Sites - Kern County

View Testing Locations Map



State-Provided Sites
  • Must have an appointment
  • Free, but if have insurance they will bill
  • No screening criteria

Kern County Fairgrounds
1142 South P Street, Building 4, Access Gate 27

Rosamond Library
3611 Rosamond Blvd, Rosamond CA 93560

Arvin Public Health
204 S Hill Street, Arvin

Wasco Library
1102 7th Street




County-Provided Sites
  • Must have an appointment
  • Free
  • No screening criteria
  • Operating with existing provider

Oildale - Good Samaritan Hospital
901 Olive Drive, Bakersfield
  • For Registration call (661) 215-7725
  • Drive-Thru Only
  • Hours: Monday - Friday 8 am - 8 pm, Saturday 8 am - 12 pm

Ridgecrest - Ridgecrest Regional Hospital
1081 N. China Lake Blvd, Ridgecrest
  • For Registration: Text the word "testing" to 833-774-4968 Or Call 866-774-9984
  • Drive-Thru Only
  • Hours: Monday - Friday 8:00 am - 10:30 am

Delano - Delano Regional Medical Center
1401 Garces Hwy, Delano
  • No Drive-Thru option
  • Hours: Monday – Friday 9 am – 5 pm

Kern River Valley - Kern Valley Hospital
6412 Laurel Ave, Mt Mesa Wheelchair Logo
  • For Registration call (760) 379-2681 ext 267
  • Drive-Thru Only
  • Hours: Wednesday - Thursday from 7 am - 2 pm.
Tehachapi - Adventist Health Tehachapi Valley
1100 Magellan Dr 93561

Lamont - Kern County Library
8304 Segrue Road, Lamont, CA 93241
  • For registration call 661-869-6018
  • Drive-Thru and Walk-Up<
  • Testing available for ages 5+ only; parents must be present and give consent for children
  • Hours: Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday 9 am - 2 pm; Tuesday, Thursday 2 pm - 7 pm

Taft - West Side Health Care District
  • For Registration call (661) 765-1935
  • Drive-Thru<
  • TTesting available for all ages; parents must be present and give consent for children
  • Hours: Tuesday – Friday 9 am – 1 pm & 3 pm – 7 pm; Saturday 11 am – 3 pm