Fact-checking the second GOP presidential debate

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"We've just now given over $100 billion (to Iran),” said Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. "The equivalent in U.S. terms is $5 trillion."

Iran is getting a sizeable award for the nuclear deal with the United States -- to the tune of $100 billion, presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said at the second Republican debate.

The Iran deal was a big topic at the Sept. 16 CNN debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Several of the candidates blasted the deal between the United States, Iran and several world powers -- including the former governor of Arkansas..

"We've just now given over $100 billion (to Iran),” Huckabee said. "The equivalent in U.S. terms is $5 trillion."

We’ve looked into similar claims before, so we decided to take a look at Huckabee’s version.

The $100 billion

It’s true that Iran will reap significant economic benefits from the deal, because many sanctions levied against Iran will be lifted if Iran complies with restrictions on its nuclear program. Iran will have access to a good deal of these funds within several months of the deal being enacted, said Matthew Kroenig, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University.

Huckabee made it sound as if the United States is giving some kind of subsidy or compensation. But the money already belongs to Iran; Iran just hasn’t been able to access it. In similar claims by other candidates and officials, the $100 billion figure has referred to the dollar amounts of Iran’s foreign assets that could be unfrozen when sanctions are lifted. An example is money Iran earned from selling oil but is held by a foreign bank.

It also includes the billions of dollars Iran has lost in revenues and opportunity costs because the country has not been able to fully participate in the global marketplace, said Michael Malloy, a law professor at University of the Pacific McGeorge School of Law and an expert on economic sanctions, in a prior interview with PolitiFact.

Estimates of the value of Iran’s foreign assets start as low as $25 billion, and they run as high as $150 billion. Most experts we’ve interviewed on this question peg the amount of unfrozen assets at about $100 billion, but no one is 100 percent sure of the amount.

Iran has financial obligations other than the sanctions, so even if all the sanctions are lifted, Iranian officials won’t suddenly have all of these assets at their disposal. For example, Iran owes billions to China for infrastructure projects. The lower estimates take into account restrictions on the money other than the sanctions, said Richard Nephew, an expert on economic sanctions at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, also in a prior interview.

The Obama administration has said that after Iran pays its outstanding financial obligations, it will have about $56 billion at its disposal.

How does this translate into $5 trillion in America?

The $5 trillion

Based on a prior fact-check, we can deduce that Huckabee is comparing the Iranian and U.S. economies based on gross domestic product, the standard measurement of an economy’s size.

According to the World Bank, Iran’s economy is $415 billion. So the $100 billion in sanctions relief amounts to about 25 percent of the economy. The United States’ economy is about $17 trillion. Twenty-five percent of that is $4.25 trillion -- a little low but not too far off from Huckabee’s $5 trillion.

It’s not a perfect measurement, said Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University, who said she would be more interested in comparing the two in terms of GDP per capita.

Though, “I do think it gives an interesting comparison of the scale,” Sinclair said of Huckabee’s claim.

Our ruling

Huckabee said, "We've just now given over $100 billion (to Iran). The equivalent in U.S. terms is $5 trillion."

Huckabee’s $100 billion figure is one of the most commonly cited estimates of how much the Iranian economy will reap from sanctions relief under the Iran deal, though no one is fully certain of the amount. But he gives a misleading impression of the transaction by implying the United States is giving the money to Iran when it would just unfreeze the assets.

We rate Huckabee’s claim Half True.

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Carly Fiorina

“The marijuana that kids are smoking today is not the same as the marijuana that Jeb Bush smoked 40 years ago.”

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The Republican presidential candidates sparred over many issues in the CNN debate, including the potency of pot.

On drug policy, there was talk about expanded rehabilitation and prison reform to reduce the number of nonviolent prisoners. When it came to marijuana, one candidate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took the hardest line, saying he would enforce a federal ban nationwide.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul favored allowing states like Colorado do as they please. So did former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who explained his position by acknowledging his own use. “So, 40 years ago, I smoked marijuana, and I admit it. I'm sure that other people might have done it and may not want to say it in front of 25 million people. My mom's not happy that I just did.”

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina shared the view that states should decide for themselves, but she offered an important caution.

“The marijuana that kids are smoking today is not the same as the marijuana that Jeb Bush smoked 40 years ago,” Fiorina said.

We thought it would be good to explore whether pot has become more potent since the 1970s. This is something we’ve looked at before.

The main psychoactive agent in marijuana is THC, or delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol. When researchers discuss the potency of marijuana, they typically are measuring the concentration of THC.

THC levels differ depending on the part of the plant used, and how it is processed for consumption. In addition to marijuana, there are materials such as sinsemilla (the flowering tops of unfertilized female plants), hashish or cannabis resin, and hash oil (a concentrated extract from cannabis plants). Hashish oil tends to have much higher concentrations of THC than marijuana or even sinsemilla. Both of these have become more popular in recent years.

But what about marijuana itself? Has weed as we once knew it become more potent?

The answer is yes. THC levels are on the rise, and they have been for quite some time.

The University of Mississippi Potency Monitoring project analyzed tens of thousands of marijuana samples confiscated by state and federal law enforcement agencies since 1972. The average potency of all seized cannabis has increased from a concentration of 3.4 percent in 1993 to about 8.8 percent in 2008. Potency in sinsemilla in particular has jumped from 5.8 percent to 13.4 percent during that same time period.

Back in the late 1970s , the mean potency for marijuana was about 3 percent, Mahmoud ElSohly, director of marijuana research with the monitoring project, told us in an interview for a prior fact-check.

Further, the number of samples confiscated with a THC concentration greater than 9 percent has increased significantly, from 3.2 percent in 1993 to 21.5 percent of the 1,635 marijuana samples collected in 2007.

But while the average is up due to the availability of marijuana with a higher THC count, the high mark in potency (somewhere around 25-27 percent) remains relatively unchanged in the last couple decades and isn’t likely to increase, ElSohly said.

For the average adult recreational or habitual user, there’s uncertainty about what rising THC levels mean.

Only a handful of studies have looked at how users smoke marijuana with varying THC levels. Several of these studies noted that when test subjects were using more highly concentrated marijuana, they often smoked less than they did when consuming product with a lower THC level.

In that regard, THC would seem to mimic how people consume beverages with different alcohol content: People tend to drink whiskey in shots, wine by the glass and beer by the mug. Marijuana may work the same way, said Carl Hart, a psychology professor at Columbia University who studies the effects of psychoactive drugs.

Roger Roffman, a social work professor at the University of Washington and author of the upcoming book Marijuana Nation, noted that there has been little research on the impact of potency in cannabis at the levels seen today, especially in products like hash oil, meaning we don’t know everything about its potential impact.

Our ruling

Fiorina said the marijuana kids smoke today is not what it was 40 years ago. Studies back that up. THC potency is up, with a growing fraction of seized marijuana having a concentration of 9 percent or more. There is some evidence that users smoke less when the pot is more potent, but that doesn’t detract from Fiorina’s main point.

We rate this claim True.

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PolitiFact, Has the potency of pot changed since President Obama was in high school?, Jan. 24, 2014

What is THC?

Cannabis contains roughly 500 compounds, 70 of which are psychoactive. THC, or delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol, is the main psychoactive ingredient in the marijuana plant.

The level of THC in a plant varies based on the strain. When researchers discuss the potency of marijuana, they typically are measuring the concentration of THC.

THC levels also differ depending on the part of the plant used, and how it is processed for consumption. In addition to marijuana, there are materials such as sinsemilla (the flowering tops of unfertilized female plants), hashish or cannabis resin, and hash oil (a concentrated extract from cannabis plants). Hashish oil tends to have much higher concentrations of THC than marijuana or even sinsemilla. Both of these have become more popular in recent years.

But what about marijuana itself? Has weed as we once knew it become more potent?

The answer is: yes. THC levels are on the rise, and they have been for quite some time.

The University of Mississippi Potency Monitoring project analyzed tens of thousands of marijuana samples confiscated by state and federal law enforcement agencies since 1972. The average potency of all seized cannabis has increased from a concentration of 3.4 percent in 1993 to about 8.8 percent in 2008. Potency in sinsemilla in particular has jumped from 5.8 percent to 13.4 percent during that same time period.

Back in the late 1970s , the mean potency for marijuana was about 3 percent, said Mahmoud ElSohly, director of marijuana research with the monitoring project.

Further, the number of samples confiscated with a THC concentration greater than 9 percent has increased significantly, from 3.2 percent in 1993 to 21.5 percent of the 1,635 marijuana samples collected in 2007.

But while the average is up due to the availability of marijuana with a higher THC count, the high mark in potency (somewhere around 25-27 percent) remains relatively unchanged in the last couple decades and isn’t likely to increase, ElSohly said.

For the average adult recreational or habitual user, there’s uncertainty about what rising THC levels mean.

Only a handful of studies have looked at how users smoke marijuana with varying THC levels. Several of these studies noted that when test subjects were using more highly concentrated marijuana, they often smoked less than they did when consuming product with a lower THC level.

In that regard, THC would seem to mimic how people consume beverages with different alcohol content: People tend to drink whiskey in shots, wine by the glass and beer by the mug. Marijuana may work the same way, said Carl Hart, a psychology professor at Columbia University who studies the effects of psychoactive drugs.

Roger Roffman, a social work professor at the University of Washington and author of the upcoming book Marijuana Nation, noted that there has been little research on the impact of potency in cannabis at the levels seen today, especially in products like hash oil, meaning we don’t know everything about its potential impact.