Walmart is the biggest retailer in the U.S. and overall, the company’s total profit and revenue exceeded expectations this quarter. Those numbers were helped, at least in part, by a whopping $2.9 billion in tariff refunds. The eye-popping number came just one day after Target announced it’s getting $994 million back in tariff refunds.

With 150 million customers shopping online or in stores every week, spending numbers from Walmart are often viewed as a bellwether for the country, and the new quarterly earnings from the retail giant gave us a mixed picture.

In Thursday’s earnings report, the company says sales at US stores rose 2.6% in the second quarter. That’s the slowest quarterly growth the company has seen in six years.

"There's relatively good growth there. There is growth; it's not declining and alarm bells kind of ringing, but it is more sluggish, slower growth,” said Jonathan Ernest, an assistant professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University.

Walmart’s CFO said higher gas prices caused by the Iran War likely impacted the spending slowdown, saying prices over $4 a gallon have a ‘psychological impact’ on shoppers.

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Both Walmart and Target have said they plan to use their massive tariff refunds to help lower prices for consumers. While lower prices certainly can help everyone today, it might not make consumers and families whole for the higher prices they paid last year.

"If you paid those tariffs last summer buying a swimming pool at Walmart, and now they lower the prices of either that item or a different item that someone else then benefits from purchasing, you're not really getting that money back, in that sense,” Ernest explained.

Professor Ernest also warns companies might be able to lower prices thanks to the tariff refunds, but they might not be able to keep those prices discounted. So consumers could see costs could drop now, but they might have to go back up down the line.

Even with tariff refunds flowing back to businesses, the threat of new or increased import taxes still remains with President Trump continuing to use tariffs as an economic and diplomatic tool.