BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — For the first time in decades, America’s immigrant population is in decline — and here in Kern County, that shift is more than just a statistic. It’s reshaping the local economy and daily life for many who call this region home.
Guadalupe Solis has worked in the fields most of his life. For him, farming isn’t just a job — it’s a family legacy and a point of pride.
“I always wanted to be a part of that,” Solis says. “Putting food on the table is one of the main reasons I do this.”
But now, with a shortage of workers, there's not enough to fill a crew.
According to a recent Pew Research Center study, immigration to the U.S. is declining. In January, immigrants made up 16% of the U.S. population. By June, that number dropped to 15%.
While it may seem like a small change on paper, the impact is deeply felt in Kern County’s labor force — particularly in agriculture, where immigrant workers have long been essential.
Nelson Salinas, a farm labor contractor in the region, says restrictive federal immigration policies and recent local immigration raids are driving workers away.
“Even if we wanted to provide more labor, there’s just not enough here under the current immigration policies being enforced,” Salinas explains.“We are having to decline jobs because we don’t have enough workforce.”
The shortage doesn’t stop at the fields. Aaron Hedge, an economics professor at California State University, Bakersfield, says the ripple effects are hitting everyday consumers — particularly when it comes to food and housing prices.
“In the past, there have been studies showing that if you cut down the immigrant workforce significantly, food prices could rise by 10% to 12%,” Hedge notes.
The construction sector is also feeling the pressure.
“As new homes are being built, many of those jobs are typically held by undocumented workers,” says Hedge. “If they’re not here, whoever does that job now needs to be paid more — and that drives up housing costs.”For Solis, the economic uncertainty is only part of the concern. He now worries about the safety of his coworkers and friends — and the stability of his paycheck.
“It should not be that way,” Solis says. “Because everyone in Kern County depends on this work, especially the immigrant population.”
As the immigrant workforce shrinks, Kern County stands at a crossroads — its economy adjusting in real time to changes in national policy and international migration. And for workers like Solis, there are more questions than answers.
For now, all we can do is watch — and wait — to see how the shortage of immigrant workers continues to reshape life in Kern County.
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