BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — What’s been labeled as a 'Blue Wave' across the country has also touched Kern County, with several local and statewide races trending in the direction of Democratic candidates.
According to the unofficial results on the Kern County Elections website on Nov. 12, races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Controller, Treasurer, Attorney General, the 22nd congressional district, and several local and statewide seats are in the Democratic candidates’ favor.
While many results locally feature narrow margins, like the less-than-a-percentage-point margin in favor of Democratic candidate for Governor Xavier Becerra and Lieutenant Governor Fiona Ma, the one local race with a wider-than-expected margin was the 22nd congressional district, where Randy Villegas took a 40-point lead over Republican incumbent David Valadao.
In Kern County, 70 percent of votes are in favor of Villegas, and looking statewide at the newly realigned district as a result of Prop 50, the numbers dont skew far, with Villegas getting nearly 68% of the vote.
Leading up to the election, we caught up with USC Political Science Professor Christian Grose regarding a poll that was sponsored by the USC Center for Political Future, which projected Villegas to win by about double digits, but was shocked to see the margin explode throughout election night and as ballots continue to be counted.
“The victory was not surprising; even a double-digit victory was not surprising. That's what we had polled, but the part that surprised me the most was the huge margin, and then basically the dropout of Republican support at all,” said Grose.
The original poll conducted by the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab pointed towards a number of factors behind the decision to project Villegas ahead, though the one stat that measured up close to the likely victory percentage? Excitement.
“Democrats were enthusiastic. One interesting factoid: thinking about the results, we asked voters if they were excited to vote, and Villegas led by 34 points over Valadao among those voters who said they were excited to vote. So I think that's what was reflected in the results,” said Grose.
As for the other races that turned blue for the first time in several years, Grose said he believes it's the result of changes to Kern County’s electorate.
“People are moving to Bakersfield, people are moving to Kern County from other parts of the state and the country, and so there is a lot of, there's a lot of change in the county, even though a lot of times people think of Kern County in more stable terms – that things don't change as much. I think that's not necessarily accurate now,"
As of Thursday, the Kern County Elections Office said the total estimated number of ballots left to be processed is just over 30,000. Statewide election results will remain unofficial until results are canvassed and certified; the deadline to complete that is Dec. 11, according to the California Secretary of State's website.
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