BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — With time waning to cast your ballot, one final poll for the 22nd congressional district is putting Democratic challenger Randy Villegas out in front of Republican incumbent David Valadao.
The recently released poll looked at four districts, including the 22nd district, changed by the Prop 50 redistricting efforts last November.
The poll, sponsored by the USC Center for the Political Future and conducted by the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, sampled 356 likely voters, estimating Villegas to garner 52% as opposed to 41% for Valadao.
The poll does carry a margin of error of 5.2% swinging either direction for both candidates, including undetermined voters, but according to Christian Grose, a political science professor for USC, when asked to make a choice, Valadao does gain a little bit of ground moving the results to within the margin of error.
“On those undecideds, we ask, well, if you had to choose today — so second question, you say you're undecided. If you had to choose today, who would you choose? And Valadao does a little bit better. And so there we get 54 to 44.”
Alongside being asked who they planned to vote for, voters were also asked to describe the issue they care most about when they think about this election: 19% pointed toward the cost of living, 12% on immigration or ICE, and 10% said economy or business.
Grose said he believes there are a few reasons behind the results they saw, including a contingent of 2024 Trump voters responding that they intend to vote for Villegas.
“We found that among Latino voters, about 1 in 5 Latino voters who voted for Trump in this district are voting for Villegas," said Grose. "I think the gap that we find is due in part to some Latino voters shifting to, who previously voted for Trump, voting for the Democrat for the House. There's also a lot of new voters who didn't vote in 2024, who are here, and then that together explains the difference.”
And as the time to vote wanes, local political science professor Ian Anderson says a poll is not indicative of a result and voting in the election is the best opportunity for residents to have their voice heard.
“A poll is just a snapshot. So, ultimately what matters to you as a voter for your district, that is how you should decide. A poll is again just a perspective of a group of people, but your vote really matters, and it's a very powerful opportunity to say: I'm happy with what I'm seeing, let's keep it going. I want to see change. I'm gonna vote for somebody else.”
The new poll can be found on the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab website.
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