BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — New U.S. restrictions banning nearly $1 billion in Canadian goods are now in effect, and while store shelves in Kern County may look the same today, local business owners and economists say the real impact could come the next time those shelves need to be restocked.
The ban covers certain alcohol, dairy products and motorcycles, and is part of a broader trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada that has already seen tariffs and retaliatory measures from both sides.
At Imbibe Wine and Spirits in Bakersfield, Managing Partner Beau Woessner said his current inventory is stable, but future purchasing is another story.
"Right here, right now, the costs are kind of set ... but the future, that really is up in the air. Unfortunately, it's the future buying that really is the biggest limbo factor here," Woessner said.
The uncertainty extends beyond liquor stores. Can-Am products, including some Canadian-made motorcycles now covered by the ban, are sold at dealerships in Bakersfield. Inventory already in the U.S. can still be sold, but future shipments of those products are blocked as long as the ban remains in place.
Cal State Bakersfield Professor of Economics and Agribusiness Aaron Hegde said the immediate effect on most Kern County consumers may be limited, but the bigger concern is what happens if the trade dispute continues to grow.
Hegde explained that the $900 million in goods covered by the new ban represents roughly 0.1% of the total $880 billion in U.S.-Canada trade — a relatively small share, but one that signals a troubling direction.
"The other aspect of it is what we export ... and so in Kern County, that matters because our production of agricultural commodities ... they are reliant on foreign markets," Hegde said.
Hegde pointed to Kern-grown products including grapes, almonds and pistachio as Canada ranks among the top importers of some of those commodities. If retaliatory tariffs expand, local producers could face higher costs or lose access to Canadian markets altogether.
He noted that agricultural margins in Kern County are already tight due to high interest rates, rising transportation costs driven by higher diesel prices, and other economic pressures. If Canada were to ban imports of certain agricultural goods, as it has already done with alcohol sales in some provinces, growers who can't quickly find alternative markets could face significant losses.
"Once you harvest it, you can't store it like steel. It's only good for so long," Hegde said.
For businesses that rely on Canadian-made goods, Hegde said switching suppliers is not a simple fix. Supply chain relationships are often built over years and negotiated well in advance. Finding an alternate supplier with enough inventory, especially during an ongoing trade dispute, would be a significant challenge.
Beyond agriculture and specialty retail, Hegde said the trade dispute could also affect the cost of building and remodeling homes in Kern County. Lumber, metals and other construction inputs that come from Canada could become more expensive, adding to costs already elevated by high interest rates and labor expenses.
At the broadest level, Hegde explained tariffs function as a tax on imports, one that ultimately gets passed on to consumers, either through higher prices or reduced availability of goods.
Canada is also working to strengthen trade ties with the European Union, which Hegde said could have long-term consequences for U.S. exporters if Canada shifts its trade relationships away from the U.S.
The first sign of this trade dispute in Kern County may not be an empty shelf, but it could show up in what's available, and what you pay, the next time you go looking for it.
Stay in Touch with Us Anytime, Anywhere:
