Foggy start to the week with change on the way

Dense Fog Advisory in effect until noon today
Posted at 3:55 AM, Nov 15, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-15 11:34:31-05

BAKERSFIELD, Calif. — The National Weather Service reports:

"Central California is experiencing one more foggy night while the ridge of high pressure lingers over the West Coast. Satellite Fog Product imagery is showing high clouds disrupting the view of the fog layer, yet, surface observations along with imagery is showing thick fog along the east side of the San Joaquin Valley. Dense fog advisories are posted for the hazards to the morning commute as the Valley observes another day of near zero visibility. The high clouds are the results of a disturbance dropping into the region that is expected to reach Central California later this Monday. The fog situation will become a bit more complex as the storm arriving behind the higher clouds begins affecting the extremely stable atmosphere over Central California. A more active pattern will develop this week as change in the weather will be expected during storm passage as the atmosphere becomes less conductive to foggy conditions.

Ensembles are showing high levels of confidence in having the current storm affecting the Pacific Northwest decay as it migrates southward toward Central California. Yet, while precipitation is expected to diminish upon arrival, enough mixing may occur to disrupt fog formation tonight into Tuesday. Ensemble members are showing a high degree on consensus toward keeping Central California dry through the mid-week period. Therefore, a change in temperatures and winds will be the main results from the passage of the next storm. Currently, most of Central California has less an a 40 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees by Wednesday. Only Bakersfield has a 67 percent chance of exceeding 70 degrees as the cold air continues to surge that far south by mid-week. Therefore, confidence grows that temperatures will changes (cold air moving south across Central California) during the week. Furthermore, ensembles show the passage of a jet max during the period of storm passage. With most ensemble members showing jet level winds of plus 50 knots, winds will become breezy at the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada Crest level. Will only expect a light breeze at lower valley levels.

Ridging then returns to the region ahead of yet another disturbance dropping from the Pacific Northwest. While ensemble uncertainty grows with the second disturbance, ensembles do place a bit more energy and moisture across Central California for possible precipitation skirting the region from the north.Uncertainty is still too high to place possible precipitation as far south as Fresno County, will introduce clouds later in the week and mention precipitation near Merced County and Yosemite NP toward Friday. At best, the next ridge will be short-lived and disturbances will disrupt fog formation for much of the next week."