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Is Kern County turning bluer? Here's what we know

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Posted at 5:41 PM, Nov 04, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-04 20:41:55-05

KERN COUNTY, Calif. — California voted heavily in Joe Biden's favor, as Democratic voters in the state outnumber Republicans significantly, but what about Kern County?

If you look at the numbers released so far by the Elections Office, President Trump only leads Biden here in the county by a very slim margin,but our 23ABC political contributor says not so fast.

"We are in a close election and it's not done," said Allen Bolar.

In the hours following election day, 23ABC political contributor Allen Bolar says it's clear that the race for president is coming down to the wire as several key battleground states are split under a few percentage points.

"Well, it's a close race right."

"Really nervous to see how these last swing states come out."

While the outcomes in those states are up for grabs, one thing is apparent, a majority of Californians voted for Joe Biden, but that's not surprising. The number of registered Democrats nearly double those of Republicans.

But what about Kern, is the Republican-favored county turning bluer? With more than half of all votes counted, more than 69,000 of them were for Biden. More than 71,000 were for Trump. That's a difference of only 1.37%.

Since 2008, the margin of victory for a Republican candidate in Kern County has decreased in each general election year. In 2008 the Republican candidate received 17% more of the votes. In 2012 16.8% more. In 2016 12.7% more.

Now in 2020, only 1.37% more as of 4 p.m. Wednesday, but again, things are not over yet according to the county.

"You're looking at about 80 to 100,000 ballots that haven't been counted yet."

Most of the ballots counted were mailed-in before election day, and with that, Bolar says let's push the breaks for now.

"So they sent their ballot in as early as they could and those disproportionately favored Biden, but I think that the Trump voters came a little later, came on election day especially. So i think there is a little bit of a mirage that you will see kind of stretch out. But, long term there has been a trend where the Democrats have become a little more competitive, although they are still the underdogs here in Kern County," said Bolar.